Three Reasons Why Goldman Is Dead Wrong In Slashing Recession Odds To Just 15%

Goldman’s economist team, which has an abysmal prediction hit-rate, is out with the worst possible news for the Biden admin: the team led by Jan Hatzius has once again slashed its subjective odds of a recession, and the bank – which last raised its recession odds back during the March bank crisis, just when the Fed’s massive liquidity injection via Discount Windows and the BTFP made a recession less likely, and has been trimming its ever since – now sees the probability of a US recession at 15%, down from 20% previously and well below a Bloomberg consensus which has been stuck at 60% since 2022 largely thanks to the grotesquely inverted yield curve which has always correctly predicted an imminent recession.

For those confused, the reason why this is bad news for Biden is that Goldman’s client-facing sellside research, unlike its FICC or Equity sales and trading desk whose notes and views are among the most accurate and sought after on Wall Street, is almost always dead wrong. Hence, one can say a recession is virtually assured.