This Is What The Debt Ceiling Deal Will Look Like And Why It May Be Announced As Soon As Tomorrow

Today’s daily update from Treasury showed that after a $25 billion benefits payment to Social Security, the Treasury’s cash balance dropped by $27 billion to $49.5 billion, the lowest since 2021.

That means that net of roughly $80 billion in extraordinary measures (this number will have its weekly update tomorrow after the close), the Treasury now has approximately $140 billion in accessible cash. Which brings us to the good news: even net of the sizable cash drain on June 1 (just over $100 billion in scheduled payments) the Treasury is likely to retain a sufficient cash balance on Jun 1, the date which Janet Yellen has previously said was the X-Date, to extend operations for at least several days without a technical default.