New Migration Data Reveals Urban Exodus Continues Despite Frozen Housing Market

Despite the worst housing affordability crisis in decades and a frozen housing market, the latest migration data reveals a clear pattern: Americans continue to ditch California’s urban centers, Chicago, and Northeastern cities, flocking to Sun Belt and Southwest US cities. 

A new report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows Houston, Jacksonville, Charlotte, San Antonia, Fort Worth, and Nashville still had strong inbound migration, while the eastern region of the San Francisco Bay Area, Orange County, San Diego, San Jose, Miami, Washington, DC, Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco had very negative outbound migration flows. 

To determine migration trends, the team analyzed current postal address change forms within a few months, explaining that this data “has given us far more conviction in expressing” migration trends nationwide. 

Here’s a snapshot of the report:

The winners: Strong housing demand

Strong migration continues in:

1. Houston
2. Jacksonville
3. Charlotte
4. San Antonio
5. Fort Worth
6. Nashville

Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:

1. Dallas
2. Atlanta
3. Tampa
4. Boise
5. Orlando
6. Raleigh-Durham

Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:

1. Phoenix
2. Austin
3. Las Vegas

The losers: Weak housing demand

Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:

1. Sacramento
2. Riverside-San Bernardino

Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:

1. Denver
2. Salt Lake
3. Philadelphia
4. Seattle

Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:

1. East Bay Area
2. Orange County
3. San Diego
4. San Jose
5. Miami
6. Washington, DC
7. Boston
8. Chicago
9. San Francisco

The team noted the data excludes international migration. There was no mention of specific drivers pushing people out of metros, such as San Francisco, Chicago, and other Northeast cities. However, one can only assume that out-of-control violent crime and soaring shelter costs have something to do with it. 

Migration patterns that took root in the Covid era remain persistent. We expect once the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, now hovering over 7%, hits its peak and reverses due to a worsening economic outlook or a potential U-turn in the Fed’s hiking strategy, the frozen housing market might come alive once more, resulting in even more Americans exiting progressive-run cities that have become nothing more than crime-infested hellholes. 

Some Americans are ditching metro areas all together: Americans Panic Search “Live Off Grid” As Housing Crisis Worsens And Democrat Cities Implode.