Michael Hartnett’s Favorite Trades Into 2024: “Bonds, Bullion And Breadth”

Could it be that immediately after BofA’s Michael Hartnett predicted last Friday that bonds would be the best performing asset in the first half of 2024, the market is already starting to frontrun his call? Probably not, since much of the move last week was due to unexpectedly dovish commentary from Fed officials (which in turn was the result of the recent surge in yields that pushed the 10Y just shy of 5.0% and sparked a mini panic within the central planning committee of the Fed), but whatever the reason, just days after Hartnett’s latest flow show, we show a sharp repricing higher in Treasury futures…

… including the biggest 2-day move in TSY yields since the bank crisis in March sent markets scrambling for the safety of US govvies.