The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time rose from 227k to 248k last week (both SA and NSA jumped)…
Source: Bloomberg
Ohio saw the largest jump in initial claims by far (see below) followed by California and Texas. Missouri saw the biggest decline in claims…
Which is important since, as a reminder, Goldman highlights that two distortions that likely boosted initial claims over the last few months – potentially fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded eligibility for unemployment insurance in Minnesota – appeared to persist in today’s report.
Those two states accounted for 28k initial claims (vs. 29k in the prior week and 14k in late May; SA by GS). After adjusting for those distortions, initial claims remained near levels last seen in January.
Bewilderingly, continuing claims continue their trend lower, back near 2023 lows at 1.68mm Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
However, as Goldman also points out, ongoing seasonal distortions have likely weighed on continuing claims over the last few months, and we estimate they could exert a cumulative drag on the level of continuing claims of 375k between April and September.
So more of the same, all indications suggest a strong labor market entirely dislocated from The Fed’s tightening moves.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-jumped-last-week
