Echelon Poll: Trump Has 7-Point Lead Over Biden in Swing States

Donald Trump holds a 7-point lead over President Joe Biden in key swing states, according to an Echelon Poll released Wednesday.

Forty-eight percent of respondents in swing states said they would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared with 41% who said they would pick Biden, though Biden is still narrowly favored overall by likely voters, 43%-42%.

Trump’s lead in swing states is further solidified when Green Party candidate Cornel West is involved, with 48% of respondents saying they would pick the former president compared with 40% for Biden.

“There is always a danger a third-party candidate can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome,” David B. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron in Ohio, told Newsweek.

“In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler.

“There is no evidence to suggest that the 2024 election will be anything but a very close election decided by razor-thin margins, which means that a third-party candidate could have an outsized influence in the result,” he added.

The report comes as Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign pulled in more than $35 million in the second quarter of fundraising this year, nearly double what the former president raised in the first quarter and since he was indicted on charges he mishandled classified document.

An NBC poll conducted June 16-20 found that Trump had expanded his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 51% to 22%, and the rest of the Republican presidential field.  

“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find a marker in this survey that it’s had an impact with his standing,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

“Not only are they sticking with Trump post-federal indictment,” Horwitt said of Republican voters, “there are several signs that his support is growing or others are losing ground, particularly Ron DeSantis.”

The Echelon Insights poll was conducted with 1,020 likely voters between June 26 and 29, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.