UMich Inflation Expectations Fell In August; Democrats’ Confidence Drops

The once-must-watch inflation expectations signal from UMich’s sentiment survey was expected to continue July’ rise in preliminary August data, but instead both short- and medium-term expectations declined. At 3.3%, the next 12 months expectations is the lowest since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The headline sentiment print declined on the month from 71.6 to 71.2…

…with current conditions rising modestly but future expectations declining…

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats’ confidence decline in the flash August data but Independents rose…

Source: Bloomberg

Buying conditions declined for Houses but soared for large household durables…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that breakevens remain notably more muted about inflation expectations than the average American surveyed by UMich…

Source: Bloomberg

We’ll only know which one was more right ex post, but breakevens have an empirically poor record of forecasting inflation, especially at turning points.